Today, we’re talking about volatility. It’s well known that markets ebb and flow, but over the past 25 years or so, there has been a pattern of spectacular rises and crashes. And that comes at the expense of decaying economic growth and central banks becoming the leaders of last resort. To understand why this is happening, we turn to Tim Lee, the author of The Rise of Carry.
Tim explains that carry trades (borrowing at low interest rates to finance higher-yield investments, and assuming market stability), are behind recurring booms and busts. Tim and his fellow authors argue that market crashes are not the result of economic recessions – rather, market crashes cause recessions.
Currently, there is risk of another carry crash, which was in development before the Russia-Ukraine crisis.